In 2007 Nicolas Sarkozy was elected, relatively comfortably, to be the President of France replacing Jacques Chirac and his tired administration. Part of the reason for Sarkozy’s success was that the population of France were looking for an individual to deal with the country’s problems, and Mr Sarkozy promised reform, dynamism and a new beginning. However, five years later it is pretty obvious that in many respects he has failed in his task. In the current electoral climate President Sarkozy is struggling against a socialist candidate (François Hollande) who it has to be said is not offering a spectacular programme of reform and is not a particularly dynamic candidate, yet is likely to beat the incumbent easily in the Presidential election. In fact, Sarkozy is so unpopular that there is a slight chance that he will not even get into the second stage of the electoral process by being beaten by Marine Le Pen, the candidate of the far-right or even by the centrist François Bayrou.

The question the political situation in France raises is, that should it be of concern that a centre-right, (in French terms), President could be defeated in a large and important European country by a wonkish unreconstructed socialist? Hypothetically I would say yes, but in reality probably not because Monsieur President having been elected as a reforming conservative patriot has turned out to be neither conservative, patriotic nor a reformer.

It has gone so wrong for the current administration because in the most crucial area, the economy, that reforms that were desperately needed Sarkozy has been remarkably unsuccessful. In 2007 he came to power promising to make France a much more business friendly and dynamic economy but five years later the regulations in the workplace which prevent for example the turnover of labour and limit working hours are still with one or two minor adjustments still in place. This has meant that the dynamic, completive entrepreneurial economy that Sarkozy talked about in 2007 has not been created; instead France is still economically stuck in the malaise of the later Chirac years. These economic regulations have also helped to keep youth unemployment at relatively high levels because without the ability to create jobs or remove underperforming workers there has been a signal lack of labour turnover and therefore many young people are not finding work. Although many countries are suffering from youth unemployment at the moment much of that is cyclical and will be reduced when their economies pick up, in France however, more than most it is a long-term generational issue that nobody has been willing to deal with. The President has also been unsuccessful in dealing with one of the main drags on the economy namely the militant trade unions which cause so much damage and disruption to France.  Sarkozy has also failed to deal with the underlying long-term problems of the French economy of low growth and high government spending and this has led to difficulties in dealing effectively with the financial problems caused by the euro crisis. President Sarkozy has therefore failed as both a reformer and as a conservative in the crucial sphere of economic management.

The other big plank of Sarkozy’s appeal in 2007 was that he would lead a more engaged and assertive France in the field of foreign affairs. Certainly on issues such as Libya and rejoining NATO he has changed the dynamics of French policy but all of this is undermined by his craven subservience to the European Union and the euro. Many of France’s current difficulties are to do with Europe but Sarkozy is unwilling to stand-up for France and the French people and has shown himself to be wedded to the discredited idea of a United Europe, and perhaps most damagingly to be a lapdog for Germany. The current President of France is therefore along with not being a conservative or a reformer not actually a patriot and this in part explains why he is at the moment heading for an abject defeat.

Nicolas Sarkozy in 2007 promised so much and has delivered so little and it is now maybe the time for the socialists to triumph in a presidential election for the first time since 1988. They will almost undoubtedly show once again how inappropriate their dogmatic beliefs are and show that without genuine right-wing/conservative reform that the current social and economic model of France is unsustainable and unworkable. However, perhaps the most important impact of a socialist victory is that it will allow the UMP (the party of Sarkozy) to become a conservative, centre-right, reformist party instead of the incoherent mess run by the French political equivalent of Edward Heath that it is now.